Unemployment and Violence: ARDL Endogeneity Approach (Desempleo y violencia: Enfoque de endogeneidad ARDL)

Adenuga Fabian Adekoya, Nor Azam Abdul-Razak

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.29105/ensayos37.2-2

Abstract


This study examines the link between unemployment and violence by controlling for income and security expenditure as an antidote to reduce violence in Nigeria. Violence claims many lives and properties in the country, which further increased the demand for public security as tax on the nation’s resources. Also, the increased unemployment in Nigeria, deserving urgent attention to be reduced, as literature has pointed out, causes idleness, deception, frustration and anger.  The idea of criminal motivation and strain as an inducement to violence are supported by evidence. Considering the nature of the variables in this study, we tested for endogeneity by using annual data set from 1980 to 2015 before proceeding to test for the long-run and short-run relationship. The Bound Test used to test the cointegration while the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) approach was used to conduct endogeneity test. ARDL Instrumental Variable is also employed to determine long-run and short-run estimates. The results showed that unemployment causes violence while income as a variable to economic growth reduces violence at the 1% level of significance. Similarly, the deterrence variable of security expenditure adversely affects violence at the 10% level of significance. Therefore, this study suggests policy to promote economic growth as the means of income-employment generation among the youth and the unemployed.  Youth programs should be provided especially among the unemployed by granting credit facilities to finance their own projects and further strengthen the deterrence institutions.

 

RESUMEN 

Este estudio examina el vínculo entre el desempleo y la violencia mediante el control de los ingresos y el gasto de seguridad, como un antídoto para reducir la violencia en Nigeria. La violencia se cobra muchas vidas y propiedades en el país, lo que aumenta aún más la demanda de seguridad pública, traducida como un impuesto a los recursos de la nación. Además, el aumento del desempleo en Nigeria, la cual merece una atención urgente que se reduzca ya que, la literatura señala, provoca ociosidad,  engaño, frustración e ira. La idea de la motivación y la tensión delictiva como un incentivo a la violencia está respaldada por la evidencia. Teniendo en cuenta la naturaleza de las variables en este estudio, probamos la endogeneidad mediante el uso de datos anuales de 1980 a 2015, antes de proceder a la prueba de la relación de largo y corto plazo. El Bound Test se usó para probar la cointegración, mientras que el enfoque del Modelo de retardo distribuido autorregresivo (ARDL), se usó para realizar pruebas de endogeneidad. La variable instrumental de ARDL también se emplea para determinar estimaciones a largo y corto plazo. Los resultados mostraron que el desempleo causa violencia; mientras que el ingreso, como variable del crecimiento económico, reduce la violencia, al nivel de significancia del 1%. De manera similar, la variable de disuasión del gasto en seguridad afecta adversamente la violencia, al nivel de significancia del 10%. Por lo tanto, este estudio sugiere una política para promover el crecimiento económico como el medio de generación de empleo-empleo entre los jóvenes y los desempleados. El empoderamiento de la juventud debe proporcionarse especialmente entre los desempleados mediante la concesión de servicios de crédito para financiar proyectos propios y fortalecer aún más las instituciones de disuasión.


Keywords


Unemployment; Income; Security Expenditure; Violence; Endogeneity ARDL

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.29105/ensayos37.2-2

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    Ensayos Revista de Economía, Vol. 37, No. 1, Mayo 2018, es una publicación semestral editada por la Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León, a través de la Facultad de Economía con la colaboración del Centro de Investigaciones Económicas, Av. Lázaro Cárdenas 4600 Ote., Fracc. Residencial Las Torres, Monterrey, N.L. C.P. 64930. Tel. +52 (81) 8329 4150 Ext. 2463 Fax. +52 (81) 8342 2897. Editor Responsable: Edgar M. Luna, Reserva de Derechos al Uso Exclusivo No. 04-2015-091013542400-203, ISSN 2448-8402, ambos otorgados por el Instituto Nacional del Derecho de Autor. Responsable de la última actualización de este Número: M.C. Hans Y. Martinez Torres, Facultad de Economía, UANL, Av. Lázaro Cárdenas 4600 Ote., Fracc. Residencial Las Torres, Monterrey, N.L. C.P. 64930. Tel. +52 (81) 8329 4150. Fecha última de actualización 25 de abril de 2018.

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