Labor Market Integration between Northern Mexico and Southern United States: an empirical investigation

Willy Walter Cortez; Alejandro Islas Camargo

doi:10.29105/ensayos28.1-3

Autores/as

Willy Walter Cortez
Alejandro Islas Camargo

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.29105/ensayos28.1-3

Palabras clave:

Vertical FDI, Labor market integration, Hodrick-Prescott filter, Latin America, US-Mexico border.

Resumen

In this paper, the analysis of co-dependence between the US and Mexico labor markets is carried out by estimating the cyclical component of California’s and Texas’ manufacturing employment and four US Border Mexican cities through the Hodrick-Prescott filter. We estimated the smoothing parameter following a calibration technique proposed by Guerrero et al (2001) which allows us to obtain the best linear unbiased estimator of the trend component. Our analysis suggests that after 1994 there has been greater labor market integration between Mexico’s northern region and US’ southern region. This greater integration has implied a change in the nature of the short term relationship of manufacturing employment between Mexico and the US. The change is also significant on the relationship between Mexican real wages and US employment.

Descargas

Los datos de descargas todavía no están disponibles.

Citas

Aguayo, F. and C. Salas-Páez (2002). Reestructuración y dinámica del empleo en México, 1980-1998, Región y Sociedad, XIV, 25, 2002, 3-62. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22198/rys.2002.25.a682

Backus, D. and P. Kehoe (1992). International Evidence on the Historical Properties of Business Cycles, The American Economic Review, 82, 864-888 DOI: https://doi.org/10.21034/sr.145

Barajas, E., M. del Rosio, A. Almaraz, J. Carrillo, O. Contreras, A. Hualde y C. Rodríguez. (2004). Industria Maquiladora en México: Perspectivas del Aprendizaje Tecnológico-Organizacional y Escalamiento Industrial, unpublished paper, El Colegio de la Frontera Norte, February, Tijuana, Baja California, México.

Baxter, M. y R. King (1995). Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series, Review of Economics and Statistics, 81, 575-593. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1162/003465399558454

Bendesky, L., E. de la Garza, J. Melgoza y C. Salas (2003). La Industria Maquiladora de Exportación en México: Mitos y Realidades, July, unpublished paper prepared for the Instituto de Estudios Laborales.

Binational Study on Migration (1998). Migration between Mexico and the United States, http://www.utexas.edu/lbj/uscir/binational/full-report.pdf.

Becerra, E. (2003). Un Criterio Estadístico para seleccionar la constante de suavizamiento del Filtro Hodrick Prescott, Tesis de Licenciatura en Matemáticas Aplicadas, Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México.

Braconier, H., P. Norbäck y D. M. Urban (2002). Vertical FDI Revisited, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano. Development Studies Working Paper No. 167, Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=347943 or DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.347943. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.347943

Cogley, T. y J. N. Nason, (1995) “Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on Trend and Difference Stationary Time Series, Implications for Business Cycle Research, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,19, 253-278. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1889(93)00781-X

Cuevas, A., M. Messmacher, y A. M. Werner, (2003). Sincronización Macroeconómica entre México y sus Socios Comerciales del TLCAN, Documento de Investigación No. 2003-01, Dirección General de Investigación Económica, BANCO DE MÉXICO. DOI: https://doi.org/10.36095/banxico/di.2003.01

Dickey, D. A., y W. A. Fuller (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427–431. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531

Dolado, J., M. Sebastián y J. Vallés (1993). Cyclical Patterns of the Spanish Economy, Investigaciones Económicas, XVII, 445-473.

Eichengreen, B. (1992). Should the Mastricht Treaty be Saved? Princeton Studies in International Finance, 74, Princeton University, December.

Encuesta Nacional de Empleo Urbano, ENEU, Bases de Datos, Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Geografía e Informática, Aguascalientes, quarterly data 1987:01-2003:01.

European Central Bank (2000). Monthly Bulletin October.

Fragoso, E., J. Herrera y R. A. Castillo (2008). Sincronización del Empleo Manufacturero en México y Estados Unidos, Economía Mexicana, NUEVA EPOCA, XVII, 1, 5-47.

Garcés, D. (2003). La Relación de Largo Plazo del PIB Mexicano y de sus Componentes con la Actividad Económica en los Estados Unidos y con el Tipo de Cambio Real, Documento de Investigación No. 2003-4, Dirección General de Investigación Económica. BANCO DE MEXICO. DOI: https://doi.org/10.36095/banxico/di.2003.04

Giomo, C., P. Richardson, D. Roseveare y P. Van den Noord (1995). Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances”, Working Papers, 152, OECD Economics Department.

Granger, C. W. (1966). The Typical Spectral Shape of an Economic Variable, Econometrica, 34, 150-161. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/1909859

Guay, A., y P. St-Amant (1997). Do the Hodrick-Prescott and Baxter-King Filters provide a good approximation of Business Cycle, Working Paper No. 53, August 1997, Center for Research of Economic Fluctuations and Employment, (CREFE), University du Québec à Montréal.

Guerrero, V., M. Juárez, y P. Poncela (2001). Data graduation based on statistical time series methods, Statistics & Probability Letters. 52, 169-175. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-7152(00)00213-3

Hanson, G., R. J. Mataloni Jr. y M. J. Slaughter (2001). Expansion Strategies of US Multinational Firms, NBER Working Paper No. 8433. August. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3386/w8433

Hanson, G., R. J. Mataloni Jr. y M. J. Slaughter (2003). Vertical Production Networks in Multinational Firms, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), May, Working Paper 9723. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3386/w9723

Hanson, G. (2003). What has Happened to Wages in Mexico since NAFTA? Implications for Hemispheric Free Trade, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), March, Working Paper 9563. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3386/w9563

Harvey, A. C. y A. Jaeger (1993). Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 8, 3, July-Sept, 231-247. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.3950080302

Helpman, E. (1984). A Simple Theory of International Trade with Multinational Corporations, Journal of Political Economy, 92, No. 3, pp. 451-471. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1086/261236

Hodrick, R. y E. Prescott (1997). Postwar U. S. Business Cycles: An empirical investigation, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 29, 1, 1-16. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2953682

Katz, I. (1998). La apertura comercial y su impacto regional sobre la economía mexicana, Miguel Ángel Porrúa, ITAM, México.

Krugman, P. (1993). “Lessons of Massachussets for EMU” en Giavazzi, F. and Torres, F. editors, The Transition to Economic and Monetary Union in Europe, Cambridge University Press, New York.

Markusen, J., (1984). Multinationals, Multi-Plant Economies and the Gains from Trade, Journal of International Economics,16, 3 / 4 (May), 205-224 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1996(84)80001-X

Markusen, J., A. Venables, D. Konan y K. Zhang (1996). A Unified Treatment of Horizontal Direct Investment, Vertical Direct Investment, and the Pattern of Trade in Goods and Services, National Bureau Economic Research (NBER), August, Working Paper No. 5696. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3386/w5696

Máttar, J., J.C. Moreno-Brid y W. Peres, (2002). Foreign Investment in México after Economic Reform, Estudios y Perspectivas no. 10, Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), July, United Nations, Mexico.

Meza, L. (2002). Desigualdad salarial en México en el periodo 1988-1998: un análisis regional, Serie Documentos de Investigación, Departamento de Economía, Universidad Iberoamericana, SOO – 16, Diciembre.

Moran, T. (2000). Inversión Extranjera Directa y Desarrollo, Oxford University Press. México D.F, México.

Perron, P. (1996). Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables, Journal of Econometrics, 80, 2, 1997, 355-85. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(97)00049-3

Ricci, L. (1996). Exchange rate regimes and location, Konstanz University, [mimeo]. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.882345

Robertson, R. (2000). Wage Shocks and North American Labor Market Integration, The American Economic Review, 90, 4, September, 742-764. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.90.4.742

Süssmuth, B. (2003). Business Cycles in the Contemporary World, Physica-Verlag, New York. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7908-2718-7

Torres, A. y O. Vela (2002). Integración Comercial y Sincronización entre los Ciclos Económicos de México y los Estados Unidos, Documento de Investigación No. 2002-06, Dirección General de Investigación Económica, BANCO DE MÉXICO.

US Bureau of Labor Statistics (2008). State and Metro Area Employment, Hours & Earnings, http://www.bls.gov/sae/

Vernon, R. (1966). International Investment and International Trade in the Product Cycle, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 82, 2, 190-207. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/1880689

Vernon, R. (1979). The Product Cycle Hypothesis in a New International Environment, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 41, November, 4, 255-267. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.1979.mp41004002.x

Yi, Kei-Mu (2003). Can Vertical Specialization Explain the Growth of World Trade? Journal of Political Economy, 111, February, 52-102. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1086/344805