Rationality, socioeconomic stratum, and educational lag in Mexico: Racionalidad, estrato socioeconómico y rezago educativo en México

Eduardo Gilberto Loría Díaz de Guzmán; Jesús Jorge Lima

doi:10.29105/ensayos44.2-2

Authors

Eduardo Gilberto Loría Díaz de Guzmán Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1597-3847
Jesús Jorge Lima Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México https://orcid.org/0009-0003-8171-475X

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.29105/ensayos44.2-2

Keywords:

rationality, socioeconomic stratum, human capital, complementary log-log model

Abstract

Objective: Educational lag (EL) affects human capital and significantly limits economic growth and development.

Methodology: Using a cloglog model, we prove the theoretical hypothesis that individuals’ rationality differs across socioeconomic strata: while individuals from lower strata are more likely to experience EL (4.3%), the opposite occurs for higher strata individual (-15.5%).

Results: We also found that, in the absence of any other variables, the probability of EL is as high as 20%; having children 24.3% (the highest in the model); and being male increases it by 9%.

Limitations: This work focuses on the factors that “pull” students away from formal educational institutions and the model only includes data from 2018.

Main findings: With scenario analysis, we demonstrate that a male from lower socioeconomic stratum, without access to healthcare and with children, faces 61% probability of EL, contrary to 37% for males with the same characteristics in the upper stratum.

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Author Biographies

Eduardo Gilberto Loría Díaz de Guzmán, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México

Ph.D. and Academic Master’s in Economics. Full Professor at UNAM’s School of Economics since 1992 and National System of Researchers Level III. Founder of the Center for Economic Modeling and Forecasting (CEMPE) and the Specialty Program in Applied Econometrics. His research focuses on macroeconometrics and economic forecasting models, with a particular emphasis on analyzing the slow growth of the Mexican economy.

Jesús Jorge Lima, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México

B.A. in Economics, UNAM. Economic Research Analyst at Banco de México. The ideas expressed in the article do not represent any official opinion or position of Banco de México.

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