Convergencia entre las economías de México y EUA

José Romero Tellaeche

doi:10.29105/ensayos29.1-4

Authors

José Romero Tellaeche

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.29105/ensayos29.1-4

Keywords:

México, EUA, convergencia, cointegración, cambio estructural, instituciones, TLCAN.

Abstract

Este trabajo analiza el proceso de convergencia del ingreso por habitante de EUA y de México de 1954 a 2008. Se encuentra un punto de ruptura en la evolución de esta relación en el último trimestre de 1982; esto llevó a analizar la brecha entre los dos ingresos, durante dos períodos, y se observa que la brecha durante el período 1983-2008 es significativamente mayor que durante el período 1954-1982. Luego, se estudia el proceso de convergencia cotejando que estas variables estuvieran cointegradas y verificando la estabilidad de los parámetros. Cabe destacar que durante el período de 1954- 2008 se dieron claramente dos períodos de cointegración, el de 1954-1982 y el de 1992-2008. Durante el primer período (1954-1982) se dio un proceso de convergencia absoluta, un proceso de alcance “catching up”. Durante el segundo período (1992-2008) se encuentra cointegración y estabilidad en los parámetros, lo que indica una convergencia estable pero incompleta en niveles menores a los registrados durante el primer período. El trabajo también ofrece una interpretación de estos resultados, con el propósito de fomentar el debate sobre las causas y soluciones del estancamiento económico de México.

Clasificación JEL: 054, 011, E22, F43.

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