Dinámica de corto plazo del empleo en las maquiladoras de Reynosa, Tamaulipas

Thomas M. Fullerton Jr.; Juan Carlos Vázquez Morales; Martha Patricia Barraza de Anda

doi:10.29105/ensayos30.1-2

Authors

Thomas M. Fullerton Jr.
Juan Carlos Vázquez Morales
Martha Patricia Barraza de Anda

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.29105/ensayos30.1-2

Keywords:

maquiladoras, empleo, economía fronteriza.

Abstract

Esta investigación analiza la dinámica de corto plazo del empleo en la industria maquiladora de exportación (IME) en Reynosa, Tamaulipas, México. El análisis se lleva a cabo con la estimación de parámetros y la metodología de funciones de transferencia lineales, ARIMA. A diferencia de otras economías metropolitanas, en las cuales se han completado estudios parecidos, el tipo de cambio real no resulta significativo. Las variables que sí resultan significativas, son las que incluyen actividad industrial en Estados Unidos, salario real y número de plantas activas. Simulaciones fuera de muestra realizadas indican que el modelo es relativamente preciso en las proyecciones de 1 a 24 meses.

Clasificación JEL: F15, R15.

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