Deuda pública, desigualdad y desarrollo en México: evidencia estatal y municipal
Public debt, inequality and development in Mexico: state and municipal evidence
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.29105/ensayos43.2-2Palabras clave:
convergencia, crecimiento económico, deuda pública, desigualdadResumen
El artículo analiza la relación de la adquisición de deuda pública con la desigualdad y el desarrollo económico. Específicamente, utiliza la tasa de crecimiento de deuda pública, el Índice de Gini y el Índice de Rezago Social como variables. Considera 31 entidades federativas de la República mexicana y 2414 municipios desde 2010 hasta el 2018. La metodología de convergencia absoluta y condicional y datos de panel deriva en los siguientes resultados: (I) bajo la hipótesis de convergencia condicional, los estados y municipios de México se acercaron en términos de la deuda pública per cápita en el periodo 2010-2018. La velocidad de acercamiento es mayor en los estados que en los municipios, (II) la convergencia condicional indica que la desigualdad explica de manera significativa la tasa de crecimiento de la deuda pública en los estados, pero no en los municipios, (III) el modelo de datos de panel destaca que, para seis de las ocho regiones geográficas en México, la desigualdad es importante para explicar el aumento de la deuda municipal a lo largo del tiempo. Además, en el caso de las regiones centro-norte y noreste, el Índice de Rezago Social explica significativamente la evolución de la deuda per cápita y (IV) los modelos estimados muestran diferencias regionales a lo largo del tiempo. En el caso de la región suroeste, que incluye tres de los estados con mayor rezago social, ninguno de los modelos contemplados explica la evolución de la deuda pública per cápita.
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Derechos de autor 2024 Claudia Susana Gómez López, Artemio Jiménez Rico, Ana Karen Negrete García
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