Subdesarrollo y globalización

David Mayer Foulkes

Abstract


Se presenta una teoría del desarrollo y el subdesarrollo en el mediano y largo plazo, basado en la teoría del cambio tecnológico endógeno. El contexto económico es el de la economía global abierta, en la que existen transferencia tecnológica, innovación, comercio e inversión extranjera directa. Ceteris paribus, bajo el libre comercio, la asignación agregada de sectores innovadores entre países es proporcional a su capacidad productiva, una vez tomadas en cuenta la transferencia tecnológica y la innovación. Esto significa que economías pequeñas o atrasadas divergirán, ya sea experimentando tasas de crecimiento menores a las de los líderes tecnológicos, o manteniendo rezagos de equilibrio en su capacidad productiva e ingreso. Por su parte, la inversión extranjera directa obtiene ganancias extraordinarias que le generan mayores incentivos a la innovación, y además desplaza la innovación local. Esto es, también resulta en incentivos asimétricos a la innovación que favorecen a los países líderes. Se desprende que las hipótesis usuales de la teoría del cambio tecnológico endógeno tienen como consecuencia, bajo las condiciones de la globalización, que las fuerzas de mercado inducen el desarrollo o el subdesarrollo: las economías pueden converger a estados estacionarios persistentemente desiguales y divergentes. Aún así, políticas económicas suficientemente fuertes en transferencia tecnológica, que compensen los desbalances en los incentives a la innovación, pueden conducir a una transición al desarrollo con altas tasas de crecimiento.

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