Análisis de cointegración y valores umbrales entre la inflación y el crecimiento económico en México: 1970-2007

W. Adrián Risso Adrián Risso, Edgar J. Sánchez Carrera


El objetivo de este estudio es estimar empíricamente las relaciones de largo plazo y los efectos umbrales entre la inflación y el crecimiento económico en México. Se muestra la existencia de tal relación a través de un vector cointegrado entre el crecimiento económico (PIB real) y la tasa de inflación (medido por el Índice Nacional de Precios al Consumidor), y se encuentra una elasticidad significativamente negativa. Además, la relación causal entre estas dos series es estudiada mediante una prueba más sólida que la de Granger; sin embargo, no encontramos ninguna dirección de causalidad entre las series. Las estimaciones del modelo de valores umbrales sugiere un 9% como el valor umbral (punto de ruptura estructural) entre la inflación y el crecimiento económico, lo cual significa que valores de inflación por encima del umbral tienen un impacto negativo sobre el crecimiento económico en México.

Clasificación JEL: E31, O40, O42.


cointegración; crecimiento económico; inflación; ruptura estructural.

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