Construcción de una Matriz de Contabilidad Social de México y su aplicación al análisis de la coyuntura comercial internacional

Gaspar Núñez Rodríguez; Lizeth Ramón Jaramillo

doi:10.29105/ensayos45.2-3

Authors

Gaspar Núñez Rodríguez Centro de Investigaci´´on y Docencia Económicas https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8113-8874
Lizeth Ramón Jaramillo Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas, A.C. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1292-8127

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.29105/ensayos45.2-3

Keywords:

Social Accounting Matrix, Trade Policy, Tariffs, Mexican Economy, Structural Analysis

Abstract

Objective: This article aimed to present the methodology for constructing Mexico’s 2018 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM-Mx18) as a tool to analyze the country's productive structure and its exposure to the external sector. Methodology: Based on this framework, accounting multiplier simulations were conducted to estimate the effects of tariff increases on total and automotive exports under scenarios with nominal tariffs (15%) and effective tariffs weighted according to the geographical composition of Mexico’s foreign trade. Elasticity scenarios—unitary, elastic, and inelastic—were applied to nominal tariff shocks, while effective tariffs were used as robustness checks. Findings: The results revealed a strong dependence on imported inputs in key productive sectors and their vulnerability to trade shocks. Implications: The findings highlight the importance of trade structure for understanding the transmission of external shocks and provide useful evidence for evaluating the effects of trade policy on the Mexican economy. Originality: The study provides a replicable methodology for constructing and applying the 2018 Social Accounting Matrix through R programming, offering a useful analytical framework for assessing trade policy scenarios and their structural effects.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Author Biographies

Gaspar Núñez Rodríguez, Centro de Investigaci´´on y Docencia Económicas

Gaspar Núñez Rodríguez is a Level I National Researcher in Mexico's National System of Researchers (SNII). He holds a Ph.D. (Cum Laude) from the Autonomous University of Barcelona and an M.A. in Economics from El Colegio de México. He has published nearly 30 peer-reviewed scientific articles in leading academic journals, including CEPAL Review and El Trimestre Económico, as well as three specialized books, book chapters, papers in refereed international conference proceedings, and numerous working papers and technical reports. He has taught more than 60 graduate-level courses at various academic institutions and has supervised numerous graduate theses. He is currently a Professor-Researcher at the Center for Research and Teaching in Economics (CIDE), Mexico.

Lizeth Ramón Jaramillo, Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas, A.C.

Lizeth Natali Ramón Jaramillo holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) and is a Professor-Researcher at the Center for Research and Teaching in Economics (CIDE), Mexico. Her research focuses on structural change, economic development, capital and financial systems, macroeconomics, social accounting matrices, and computable general equilibrium models. She has taught graduate-level courses and supervised graduate theses in Ecuador and Mexico. She is the author of book chapters and peer-reviewed scientific articles on inequality, structural change, economic growth, and local value chains. She has presented her research at international conferences and academic seminars and has also collaborated on projects involving statistical analysis and the development of educational and productive indicators.

References

[1] Aroche-Reyes, F. (1996). Important coefficients and structural change: A multi-layer approach. Economic Systems Research, 8(3), 235–246. https://doi.org/10.1080/09535319600000017

[2] Banco Mundial. (2025). Exportaciones de bienes y servicios (% del PIB) – México. https://datos.bancomundial.org/indicador/NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS?locations=MX

[3] Blancas, A. (2006). Interinstitutional linkage analysis: A Social Accounting Matrix multiplier approach for the Mexican economy. Economic Systems Research, 18(1), 29–59. https://doi.org/10.1080/09535310500438088

[4] Blancas, A., & Aliphat, M. (2021). Matriz de contabilidad social: Reflexiones para el análisis económico de México. Problemas del Desarrollo. Revista Latinoamericana de Economía, 52(206), 3–28. https://doi.org/10.22201/iiec.20078951e.2021.206.69711

[5] Cardenete, M., Congregado, E., De Miguel, F., & Pérez, J. (2000). Una comparación de las economías andaluza y extremeña a partir de matrices de contabilidad social y multiplicadores lineales. Estudios de Economía Aplicada, 15, 47–73.

[6] Cardenete, M., & Sancho, F. (2002). Evaluación de multiplicadores contables en el marco de una matriz de contabilidad social regional. Investigaciones Regionales, (2), 121–139.

[7] Cermeño, R., & Rivera, H. (2016). La demanda de importaciones y exportaciones de México en la era del TLCAN: Un enfoque de cointegración. El Trimestre Económico, 83(329), 127–147. https://doi.org/10.20430/ete.v83i329.198

[8] Delgado, M. C., & Núñez, G. (2022). Impacto económico de un arancel a las importaciones en México: Un análisis de equilibrio general aplicado. Panorama Económico, 17(36), 245–260.

[9] Flaaen, A., & Pierce, J. (2019). Disentangling the effects of the 2018-2019 tariffs on a globally connected U.S. manufacturing sector (Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-086). Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2019.086

[10] Gallagher, K. P., Moreno-Brid, J. C., & Porzecanski, R. (2008). The dynamism of Mexican exports: Lost in (Chinese) translation? World Development, 36(8), 1365–1380. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2007.09.004

[11] García-Remigio, A., Cardenete, M. A., & Venegas-Martínez, F. (2025). Propuesta de matriz de contabilidad social para México 2022: Un análisis estructural postpandemia (MPRA Paper No. 121186). Munich Personal RePEc Archive. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/121186/

[12] Hirschman, A. O. (1958). The strategy of economic development. Yale University Press.

[13] Instituto Mexicano para la Competitividad. (2025). El impacto de los aranceles en la economía norteamericana. https://imco.org.mx/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Aranceles_enero2025-1.pdf

[14] Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía. (2025). Sistema de Información Económica: Exportaciones totales, 2018 - 2023. Banco de México. https://www.banxico.org.mx/SieInternet/consultarDirectorioInternetAction.do?accion=consultarCuadro&idCuadro=CE37&sector=1&locale=es

[15] Kee, H. L., Nicita, A., & Olarreaga, M. (2008). Import demand elasticities and trade distortions. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 90(4), 666–682. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest.90.4.666

[16] Lofgren, H., Harris, R. L., & Robinson, S. (2002). A standard computable general equilibrium (CGE) model in GAMS (Microcomputers in Policy Research No. 5). International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

[17] Mendoza, J. E. (2013). El efecto de las exportaciones chinas hacia Estados Unidos en la demanda de empleo del sector manufacturero en México 2004-2012. Revista Mexicana de Estudios sobre la Cuenca del Pacífico, 7(14), 33–69.

[18] Miller, R. E., & Blair, P. D. (2009). Social accounting matrices. En R. E. Miller & P. D. Blair (Eds.), Input-output analysis: Foundations and extensions (2.ª ed., pp. 499–542). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511626982

[19] Murillo Villanueva, B., & Carbajal Suárez, Y. (2025). Capacidad de las exportaciones manufactureras para generar empleo y valor agregado interno en Norteamérica, 1995-2020. Frontera Norte, 37, Artículo e2415, 1–21. https://doi.org/10.33679/rfn.v1i1.2415

[20] Núñez, G. (2014). Macro Matriz de Contabilidad Social de México para el año 2003. EconoQuantum: Revista de Economía y Negocios, 11(2), 75–99. https://doi.org/10.18381/eq.v11i2.4323

[21] Núñez, G., & Mendoza, V. (2008). Matriz de contabilidad social y análisis estructural de una economía rural: El ejido Los Lirios, municipio de Arteaga, Coahuila, México. Economía: Teoría y Práctica, (28), 43–71.

[22] Núñez Rodríguez, G. (2018). Matriz de contabilidad social y análisis de sectores productivos en México. Contaduría y Administración, 63(3), 1–20. https://doi.org/10.22201/fca.24488410e.2018.873

[23] OECD. (2020). Perspectivas económicas de América Latina 2020: Transformación digital para una mejor reconstrucción. OECD Publishing. https://www.oecd.org/es/publications/2020/09/latin-american-economic-outlook-2020_a260df33.html

[24] Pyatt, G., & Round, J. I. (1979). Accounting and fixed-price multipliers in a social accounting framework. The Economic Journal, 89(356), 850–873. https://doi.org/10.2307/2231503

[25] Round, J. (2003). Social accounting matrices and SAM-based multiplier analysis (Poverty Inequality and Development Working Paper). World Bank.

[26] Siller, G. (2016, 17 de noviembre). El impacto en México de las medidas de Trump. El Financiero. http://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/monterrey/el-impacto-en-mexico-de-las-medidas-de-trump.html

[27] Stone, J. R. N. (1978, 16–21 de abril). The disaggregation of the household sector in the national accounts [Presentación de documento]. World Bank Conference on Social Accounting Methods in Development, Cambridge, Reino Unido.

[28] Stone, R. (1986). Social accounting: The state of play. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 88(3), 453–472. https://doi.org/10.2307/3440381

[29] Taylor, L. (2004). Social accounts and social relations. En L. Taylor, Reconstructing macroeconomics: Structuralist proposals and critiques of the mainstream (pp. 7–43). Harvard University Press.

[30] Thorbecke, E. (2000, 27 de agosto–2 de septiembre). The use of social accounting matrices in modeling [Presentación de documento]. 26th General Conference of the International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, Cracovia, Polonia.

[31] Tokarick, S. (2010). A method for calculating export supply and import demand elasticities (IMF Working Paper No. WP/10/180). International Monetary Fund. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2010/wp10180.pdf

[32] The White House. (2018, 31 de mayo). Presidential proclamation adjusting imports of steel into the United States. Trump White House Archives. https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/presidential-actions/presidential-proclamation-adjusting-imports-steel-united-states-4/