Construcción de una Matriz de Contabilidad Social de México y su aplicación al análisis de la coyuntura comercial internacional

Gaspar Núñez Rodríguez; Lizeth Ramón Jaramillo

doi:10.29105/ensayos45.2-3

Authors

Gaspar Núñez Rodríguez Centro de Investigaci´´on y Docencia Económicas https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8113-8874
Lizeth Ramón Jaramillo Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas, A.C. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1292-8127

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.29105/ensayos45.2-3

Keywords:

Social Accounting Matrix, Trade Policy, Tariffs, Mexican Economy, Structural Analysis

Abstract

Objective: This article aimed to present the methodology for constructing Mexico’s 2018 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM-Mx18) as a tool to analyze the country's productive structure and its exposure to the external sector. Methodology: Based on this framework, accounting multiplier simulations were conducted to estimate the effects of tariff increases on total and automotive exports under scenarios with nominal tariffs (15%) and effective tariffs weighted according to the geographical composition of Mexico’s foreign trade. Elasticity scenarios—unitary, elastic, and inelastic—were applied to nominal tariff shocks, while effective tariffs were used as robustness checks. Findings: The results revealed a strong dependence on imported inputs in key productive sectors and their vulnerability to trade shocks. Implications: The findings highlight the importance of trade structure for understanding the transmission of external shocks and provide useful evidence for evaluating the effects of trade policy on the Mexican economy. Originality: The study provides a replicable methodology for constructing and applying the 2018 Social Accounting Matrix through R programming, offering a useful analytical framework for assessing trade policy scenarios and their structural effects.

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Author Biographies

Gaspar Núñez Rodríguez, Centro de Investigaci´´on y Docencia Económicas

Gaspar Núñez Rodríguez is a Level I National Researcher in Mexico's National System of Researchers (SNII). He holds a Ph.D. (Cum Laude) from the Autonomous University of Barcelona and an M.A. in Economics from El Colegio de México. He has published nearly 30 peer-reviewed scientific articles in leading academic journals, including CEPAL Review and El Trimestre Económico, as well as three specialized books, book chapters, papers in refereed international conference proceedings, and numerous working papers and technical reports. He has taught more than 60 graduate-level courses at various academic institutions and has supervised numerous graduate theses. He is currently a Professor-Researcher at the Center for Research and Teaching in Economics (CIDE), Mexico.

Lizeth Ramón Jaramillo, Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas, A.C.

Lizeth Natali Ramón Jaramillo holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) and is a Professor-Researcher at the Center for Research and Teaching in Economics (CIDE), Mexico. Her research focuses on structural change, economic development, capital and financial systems, macroeconomics, social accounting matrices, and computable general equilibrium models. She has taught graduate-level courses and supervised graduate theses in Ecuador and Mexico. She is the author of book chapters and peer-reviewed scientific articles on inequality, structural change, economic growth, and local value chains. She has presented her research at international conferences and academic seminars and has also collaborated on projects involving statistical analysis and the development of educational and productive indicators.

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